From The Table To Shipping: How Are China's Changing Eating Habits Affecting Shipping?

Chinese consumers' eating habits are quietly shifting, with pork consumption gradually replaced by beef and chicken consumption, affecting not only the domestic food industry, but also triggering a ripple effect around the world, especially in the dry bulk shipping market. This trend is reshaping international trade and shipping to some extent.

From pork to beef and lamb

China's main meat consumption is pork. China consumes half of the world's pork and accounts for 60% of its total meat demand. However, with the increase of wealthy people, beef and poultry are gradually favored for their health and quality advantages. Since 2000, beef and veal consumption in China has increased by nearly 130 percent, chicken by more than 55 percent, and pork by a relatively small amount. Beef consumption grew particularly significantly in 2024, with imports reaching 1 million tonnes in the first four months of the year, up 22% year-on-year, reflecting rising middle class demand for quality meat.

In addition, China's beef imports reached 1 million tons in the first four months of 2024, up 22% year on year, according to the General Administration of Customs. In 2023, beef imports reached 2.74 million tons, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year and a new high.

 

Another phenomenon, due to the change in the meat consumption structure of the Chinese people, the demand for pork has decreased, which has affected China's soybean (feed) imports. China imports soybeans mainly for cooking oil and animal feed, especially for pigs.

 

Higher income, healthier eating

Greek ship broker Ursa noted in a recent report that China, the world's second most populous country, is slowly changing its diet from one type of meat to another. The meat market can be an important indicator of economic trends, reflecting changes in consumer preferences, disposable income and supply chain dynamics.

Ursa analysts note that as incomes rise, wealthier people tend to switch from low-cost proteins, such as pork, to higher-value meats, such as beef and poultry. Despite China's slowing economy, the affluent population is still growing and demand for high-end meat is increasing. According to a report by New World Wealth and Henley & Partners, the number of billionaires in China has grown by 108% in the past decade and is expected to grow by another 150% by 2040.

Policy adjustment

China's pork production fell 0.8 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the third straight quarterly decline, according to Reuters calculations based on data from China's National Bureau of Statistics.

In the first nine months of the year, pork production fell 1.4 percent to 42.4 million tons, while slaughter fell 3.2 percent to 520.3 million heads. In addition, the pig stock at the end of September was 3.5% lower than the same period last year. However, the decline in stocks is not surprising, as a government measure to deal with an excessive supply of pigs has sent pork prices plummeting. This measure involves reducing the number of slaughtered pigs, but increasing the weight of individual pigs.

Political factor

However, beef imports have not been smooth sailing. The United States is a major beef supplier to China, and the election of Donald Trump in the United States will raise tariff barriers, which will affect the import and export of grain between China and the United States. In response to the possible instability of U.S. supply brought about by Trump's election, China has adopted a beef-like diversification strategy for soybean imports, importing soybeans from Brazil, Canada, Russia, Argentina, Benin, Ukraine, Uruguay, Ethiopia, Tanzania and other countries.

Butterfly effect: affects the dry bulk transportation market

① Stock up

As mentioned above, China has adopted a diversified strategy to import soybeans. According to Ursa report data, the total volume of bulk seaborne soybean cargoes arriving in China from various sources in the first nine months of this year is expected to reach 80.76 million tons, an increase of nearly 4.5% over the unloading volume from January to September 2023 (77.42 million tons). This is about 18.5% higher than the average for the same period over the past five years (68.23 million tonnes). China imported a record 12.14 million tonnes of soyabeans in August, but this was seen as a "precautionary Trump" stockpiling measure.

② Route supply chain adjustment

China's import diversification strategy to reduce its dependence on a single market is generating new demand and driving route growth. For example, China's import of soybeans from Brazil has increased year by year, driving the demand for routes from South America to China; Demand for capacity is particularly high during the harvest season, and Brazilian port facilities are being upgraded to meet export demand. At the same time, Russia has gradually become an alternative supplier of soybeans to China, and the sea and land transport routes between China and Russia have been diversified, especially the sea route from the Far East port to northeast China has shown a growing trend.

In summary, trade turmoil between China and the United States will continue to shape global shipping and agricultural markets as China's diet shifts and supply chains globalize. To address these challenges, shipping companies must pay close attention to these data so that they can make the right decisions when the situation changes.